As the number of electric vehicles (EVs) on the road increases, there will be greater demand on the electric grid. Even though federal EV tax credits were terminated at the end of the federal government’s 2025 fiscal year, during the second quarter of 2026, 86,857 or 19.1% of new car sales in California were zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), marking a 3.3% increase from the first quarter.
Tax credits and rebates are designed to close the gap between the cost of purchasing an EV and internal-combustion engine vehicles. In 2025, the average cost of an EV was $57,245 with a range of prices from approximately $30,000 to over $100,000. The federal tax credits were previously $7,500 for new EV purchases and $4,000 for used EV purchases. This month, California has taken steps to incentivize the purchase of EVs.
On July 13, 2026, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed SB 168, which creates a new ZEV instant rebate program called “MyFirstEV,” which will become effective in late summer 2026. SB 168 allocates $135.5 million for the MyFirstEV program, which is matched by participating automakers. First time ZEV buyers in California can receive a $3,500 rebate at the point of sale for new ZEVs with an MSRP up to $50,000 or a $1,750 rebate at the point of sale for used ZEVs sold for up to $25,000 (unless the car is made by a “California-headquartered zero-emission vehicle company,” then the price cap will not apply). The new instant rebate occurs directly at the point of sale, which lowers the immediate purchase price, compared to a tax rebate or a rebate check that is provided after purchase and is claimed on a delayed timeline. However, since there is a manufacturer match component, the instant rebate can only be obtained with automakers who opt into the program and meet certain requirements.
This allocation of dollars to clean energy programs continues in the path of other California programs such as a $1 billion rebate program providing between $7,500 and $120,000 in rebates for public and private fleets of electric medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and investments in zero-emission school buses. In addition, the California Clean Vehicle Rebate Program (CVRP) previously provided up to $7,000 in rebates for the purchase or lease of ZEVs, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and zero-emission motorcycles (ZEMs). This program was administered by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and ended in November 2023.
Given that EV adoption is rising in California and the state recently implemented the MyFirstEV rebate program, California will need to grapple with forecasting EV load to ensure appropriate infrastructure development. Forecasting EV load growth can be challenging given the localized load growth of EVs. The California Energy Commission’s (CEC) 2025 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) is used to inform grid planning in the state and projects electricity demand to grow from the adoption of ZEVs. Incremental peak-load impacts from EV charging are expected to increase from 84 MW in 2025 to 431 MW in 2030. In conducting its forecasts as part of its IEPR, the CEC notes that that the increase in EVs, data centers, and energy efficiency mechanisms should be independent factors because of deviations from historical trends (Final 2025 IEPR at 17).
Utilities have attempted to forecast EV adoption by using hourly and sub-hourly meter readings from charger- or port-level energy consumption data to identify usage patterns and historical vehicle registration data. Utilities integrate data from multiple sources to estimate baseline adoption levels based on location-specific behavior. One solution is bottom-up forecasting, which looks at information such as EV travel pattern data, charging location, and the type of charging occurring at the local level. Load forecasting may also need to take into account that EVs not only place demand on the grid, they can also provide benefits to the grid. For example, EVs may use existing infrastructure, have flexibility to align charging with lower-cost renewable sources, and provide vehicle-to-grid (V2G) resiliency. Accurate EV load forecasting will help ensure that appropriate charging and grid infrastructure is developed in the correct locations, which can improve upon the existing framework for further EV adoption to meet California’s climate goals.
For further information, please reach out to Sean Neal or Sylwia Dakowicz.
Article By DWGP Summer Associate Jackie Dall – UC Berkeley School of Law, May 2027
