On November 18, 2025, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (“NERC”) released the 2025-2026 Winter Reliability Assessment (“WRA”) which identifies, assesses, and reports on areas of concern regarding the reliability of Bulk Power System (“BPS”) for the upcoming three-month winter season (December-February). NERC reported that winter electricity demand is rising at the fastest rate in recent years, particularly in areas where data center development is occurring. Overall, NERC found that all assessed areas have adequate resources for normal winter conditions during peak load.
High Level Summary of the WRA. Each assessment area was evaluated by considering the Planning Reserve Margins, seasonal risk scenarios, probability-based risk assessments, and other available risk information. Assessment areas were then placed in High, Elevated, or Normal Risk categories. High Risk was defined as the potential for insufficient operating reserves in normal peak conditions. Elevated Risk was defined as the potential for insufficient operating reserves in above normal conditions and Normal Risk is sufficient operating reserves expected.
Key Findings:
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All areas assessed were found to have adequate resources for normal winter peak-load conditions. However, more extreme winter conditions extending over a wide area could result in electricity supply shortfalls to the following areas: NPCC Maritimes, NPCC New England, SERC East, SERC Central, Texas RE-ERCOT, WECC Basin, and WECC NW.
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The performance of natural gas production and supply infrastructure during peak winter conditions will have a significant effect on BPS reliability.
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Cold weather Reliability Standards have been improved prior to the upcoming winter and now address recommendations from winter storms Elliot and Uri.
NERC recommends the following actions:
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Reliability Coordinators (RC), Balancing Authorities (BA), and Transmission Operators (TOP) in the elevated risk areas identified in the key findings should review seasonal operating plans and the protocols for communicating and resolving potential supply shortfalls in anticipation of potentially high generator outages and extreme demand levels.
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GOs should complete winter readiness plans and checklists prior to December, deploy weatherization packages well in advance of approaching winter storms, and frequently check and maintain cold weather mitigations while conditions persist.
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BAs should be cognizant of the potential for short-term load forecasts to underestimate load in extreme cold weather events and be prepared to take early action to implement protocols and procedures for managing potential reserve deficiencies.
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RCs and BAs should implement generator fuel surveys to monitor the adequacy of fuel supplies. They should prepare their operating plans to manage potential supply shortfalls and take proactive steps for generator readiness, fuel availability, load curtailment, and sustained operations in extreme conditions.
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Generator Owners/Operators of natural gas fired units should maintain awareness of potential extreme cold weather developing over holiday weekends and the implications for fuel planning and procurement that may result given the natural gas purchase close dates that precede long holiday weekends.
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State and provincial regulators can assist grid owners and operators in advance of and during extreme cold weather by maintaining awareness of BA, natural gas pipeline, and gas local distribution company (LDC) operational public announcements and notices, amplifying public appeals for electricity and natural gas conservation, and supporting requested environmental and transportation waivers.
For more information and assistance please contact Lisa Gast and Sean Neal.